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The risks facing the French economy remain primarily external, originating mainly from our trading partners who one by one are taking the tricky step of planning a referendum. Coming just a few weeks after Brexit, the Italian government would not survive if the electorate decides to vote against its proposed reforms to the Senate. There is every likelihood that France will suffer a significant economic fallout from any prolonged period of political uncertainty in Italy (even though this risk has not yet actually materialized in the case of the UK).

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