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The beginning of the summer was on everyone’s mind, and the idea that the United Kingdom could leave the European Union (EU) seemed unlikely. The Brexit shock of 23 June shook the global financial markets. All eyes then turned to the UK, but the British Prime Minister Theresa May has only just announced that she will trigger Article 50 before the end of March 2017. The process of withdrawing from the EU will then begin, and will theoretically take two years, but in reality could prove much longer. Unsurprisingly, this shock has prompted us to revise our evaluation of the country down to A3, with significant uncertainty weighing on agents’ confidence and a potentially worrying negative impact when the UK actually leaves the EU.

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