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Global growth will slow down to +2.4% in 2016, its lowest level since the great recession

Global growth could slow this year to +2.4% and might accelerate marginally in 2017 (+2.7%). The slowdown in prices has pushed down nominal growth, turnovers, and trade. This priceless growth is set to cause a rise in insolvencies by +1% this year and in 2017: the first rise since the great recession. Two reasons: (i) the difficulty to deleverage while debt overhang is important in countries like Brazil and China and sectors such as utilities (ii) commodities-related sectors and countries are still at risk. Net consumers, importers, and debtors benefit from low prices and yields, while net producers and exporters, savers and creditors are having a hard time.

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