Financial markets were rocked at the beginning of 2016 by worries that a “hard landing” in China would lead to a global downturn. Heading into the U.S. presidential election, it appeared that investor angst at the beginning of the year was largely misplaced.
Wells Fargo has made some changes to their global economic forecast in light of the U.S. presidential election. Notably, they now look for the Mexican economy to fall into recession next year, and we have pared back our forecast for Brazilian GDP growth. We have not made any changes to our forecasts for Canada and China, but we acknowledge the downside risks to those forecasts from a potentially more hawkish American stance on international trade.