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The global economy has been growing for seven years, and we forecast that th e expansion that is underway will remain intact through 2019. Inflation has been benign in most economies, but inflation rates should edge higher as spare capacity diminishes. Expectations of eventual monetary tightening in many foreign economies should lead to modest dollar depreciation vis-à-vis most foreign currencies. Overzealous tightening of monetary policy represents a potential downside risk to the global economic outlook as does a potential debt crisis in China. However, geopolitical events represent the most credible downside risk in the foreseeable future to our base case scenario that the global economy will continue to grow at a modest pace.

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