[U]nder Massa, Argentina is more likely to achieve IMF targets and be dedicated to a successful IMF program. The flip side of this commitment is that the IMF requires specific policy implementation to correct economic imbalances, which should still lead to a peso devaluation by the end of this year. However, under Massa we believe the probability of sovereign default is now lower and that risks are now tilted toward a shallower peso devaluation than we forecast.

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