Even with Encouraging Inflation Developments, Economic Resilience Continues to Challenge the Fed - In line with last week's CPI performance, the headline PPI increased 0.2% sequentially, two-tenths below expectations. The resiliency of the U.S. consumer was also on display, as total retail sales increased a stronger-than-expected 1.3% in October, boosted, in part, by a 1.3% jump in motor vehicles & parts and a 4.1% rise at gasoline stations. Weakness continued in the housing market, which is clearly in recession.
What's Going On with Global Inflation? - This week, October CPI data were released for the U.K., Canada and Japan, highlighting diverging paths for inflation in each economy. In the U.K., headline CPI inflation rose to 11.1% year-over-year, with the electricity, gas and other fuels category up nearly 90% compared to last year. Meanwhile, headline inflation in Canada has receded from a recent peak, coming in at 6.9%, but underlying price pressures continue to intensify. Last, Japan's inflation is much more contained compared to the U.K. and Canada, although prices are elevated by recent historical standards. Headline inflation quickened to 3.7% in October.