03/26: Beyond the Strait: Why the Global Energy Shock Runs Deeper Than Expected

The presentation explores why the current energy crisis—triggered by rising tensions and conflicts in Iran—poses far greater global risks than the commonly cited statistic that “20% of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz” suggests. It outlines how even a partial disruption in this chokepoint can trigger cascading effects across global trade, shipping routes, insurance markets, and energy pricing. The talk explores both the immediate shock to oil and gas supply chains and the longer-term structural consequences for inflation, manufacturing, and geopolitical alliances. It also examines how uncertainty itself becomes an economic force, amplifying volatility in commodity markets and reshaping investment decisions worldwide. Ultimately, it’s not just about oil flows—it is about the fragility of interconnected global systems and the outsized impact of regional conflict on the world economy.

Fred Dons is currently the Head of Trade Finance at Stavian Singapore and has worked in trade finance for more than 30 years at various international banks like ABN, AMRO and Deutsche Bank and most recently before joining Stavian, was recently the Head of Structured Trade Finance at Aria Commodities. Fred started in trade finance operations in 1989 with AMRO Bank before moving to Albert de Bary Bankiers Rotterdam in 1991. In 2003 he became Head of Trade Finance Operations for DB Amsterdam but left the bank in 2004 to become Head of the European Document Check Team at ABN AMRO before returning to DB in 2006. At DB he served amongst others as Head of Trade Finance as well as Head of Commodity Finance. During his banking years Fred Dons was a member of the National Committee for the ICC and the Dutch Bankers Association, working on the UCP, UDRG, ISBP and other rules and regulations for Trade Finance.