Atradius

The supply of Russian pipeline gas to Europe fell by more than 80% between the pre-crisis period (2019-2021) and 2023. The lost gas from Russia was partly replaced by LNG, with the United States as the main supplier. The sharp price increases also triggered a demand response, with gas demand falling by around 20%. After the initial price shock, the European gas market has calmed down considerably.

The significance of trading on credit in B2B sales for companies in Western Europe is clearly shown in our survey. Overall, nearly half of all B2B sales are currently being transacted on credit, a consistent trend from the previous year. Spain has the highest level at 67% of all sales, whereas in Austria it is only 38% of sales. Key reasons for offering trade credit are to boost sales and to foster long-term customer relationships.

After a 11.1% surge in 2023 we expect motor vehicles and parts output growth to slow down to 0.8% in 2024 and to 1.4% in 2025, due to subdued demand.

A series of adverse developments have increased the debt problems of vulnerable countries. The Covid-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine led to disrupted global supply chains, higher inflation and rising interest rates. These external shocks came on top of policy failures and other domestic problems, creating a perfect storm for many countries. In the past three years, the number of sovereign debt defaults in developing countries totalled 18, outstripping the total over the previous two decades. More may follow in the coming year as 20 countries eligible to borrow from the World Bank’s International Development Association (IDA) are at high risk of debt distress.

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