Credendo

The success story of 73-year-old PM Modi is likely to open a new five-year chapter. Such an achievement would bring his length of service only second to Jawaharlal Nehru (16.5 years) in independent India’s history, with the incumbent PM and his BJP party once again the clear favourites to win the general elections to be held between 19 April and 1 June. His charisma and strong leadership, Hindu nationalism and the rise of India’s global standing in particular, as well as a solid economic track record, generous welfare transfers and business-oriented government policy, are some of the many reasons that explain Modi’s enduring popularity. At the same time, the fragmented opposition – despite the belatedly formed but and substantial INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) coalition that has emerged pre-election – and the lack of a strong rival leader (notably from the historic Indian National Congress) in the face of the strong BJP political machine, not to mention legal barriers for the opposition such as the recent arrest of Modi’s main opponent Arvind Kejriwal – Delhi’s chief minister and leader of the AAP party – , have facilitated Modi’s political destiny. As a result, the BJP’s number of seats in Parliament may rise even further after the current elections.

Copper demand could double by 2035. The main drivers are the revival in demand from Chinese manufacturers, the rebound of the global economy and the boom in investments in green technologies (e.g. renewables and electrical vehicles) and in AI technologies.

The political controversy adds to tensions around nickel, another bone of contention. New Caledonia, which owns more than 10% of the world’s nickel reserves, has seen its local nickel company SNL (Société Le Nickel) dive into unsustainable financial conditions. Not only have the independentists criticised the environmental impact of this dominant industry, but they have also blamed the “Nickel Pact” adopted last November by New Caledonia and France.

At the May 2024 elections, José Raúl Mulino, a former security minister from the centre-right Realizando Metas party, was chosen as Panama’s new president. Mulino’s victory is not surprising as he enjoys support from the popular ex-president Ricardo Martinelli (2009-2014). Interestingly, Mulino’s candidacy was only declared constitutional by the Supreme Court a few days prior to the elections, as he replaced Martinelli at the last moment.

Following months of historic violent political unrest, the postponed presidential elections were held in March 2024. During these elections, the opposition managed to book a landslide victory. Former tax-collector and transparency activist Diomaye Faye won the presidency, and his mentor Ousmane Sonko became Senegal’s new prime minister. During the unfolding of the recent political crisis, both Sonko and Faye were freed from prison as part of an amnesty deal. They had been imprisoned over defamation and online criticism of the former government last year. This specific ending to a deep constitutional crisis has proved the strength of Senegal’s institutions and civil society as democracy prevailed in a region ravaged by democratic decay and military coups.

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