Goldman Sachs

24 May 2024:

➦ Central bank divergence: room to run?

• Resilient US growth and a series of upside US inflation surprises to start the year have led markets to now expect the Fed to cut interest rates later and more gradually than most G10 central banks. How far central bank divergence could run, and the implications for economies and markets, is Top of Mind.

03 May 2024:

➦ Weighing the GLP-1 market

• The newest generation of GLP-1 drugs are being hailed by some as “miracle drugs” for the treatment of obesity. But GLP-1s are expensive, insurance coverage is limited, and not everyone with obesity can or wants to take them. So, how large is the actual addressable market for GLP-1s? Obesity physician Dr. Fatima Cody Stanford argues that it’s only a fraction of the 1 billion people worldwide who have obesity. GS’ Chris Shibutani agrees that many factors will constrain market size in the near-to-medium term, though he expects the global GLP-1 market to grow to $100bn in 2030, and potentially much higher if more insurers cover GLP-1s and they show promise in treating other diseases, which GS’ John Marshall estimates could result in a ~70mn US patient population. We then assess the implications for industries, the economy, and fiscal health, with GS’ Joseph Briggs finding that wider GLP-1 adoption could meaningfully boost US growth while MIT’s Jonathan Gruber warns that expanding insurance coverage for GLP-1s would cost the US government a staggering sum.