Goldman Sachs

03 May 2024:

➦ Weighing the GLP-1 market

• The newest generation of GLP-1 drugs are being hailed by some as “miracle drugs” for the treatment of obesity. But GLP-1s are expensive, insurance coverage is limited, and not everyone with obesity can or wants to take them. So, how large is the actual addressable market for GLP-1s? Obesity physician Dr. Fatima Cody Stanford argues that it’s only a fraction of the 1 billion people worldwide who have obesity. GS’ Chris Shibutani agrees that many factors will constrain market size in the near-to-medium term, though he expects the global GLP-1 market to grow to $100bn in 2030, and potentially much higher if more insurers cover GLP-1s and they show promise in treating other diseases, which GS’ John Marshall estimates could result in a ~70mn US patient population. We then assess the implications for industries, the economy, and fiscal health, with GS’ Joseph Briggs finding that wider GLP-1 adoption could meaningfully boost US growth while MIT’s Jonathan Gruber warns that expanding insurance coverage for GLP-1s would cost the US government a staggering sum.